I did not know very well the political situation in Azerbaijan. But this country plays a strategic role in the region due to its ressources in oil and gaz. The western countries try to use these ressources in order to minimize their energetical dependancies towards Russia. The pipeline BTC (Baku, Tbilissi, Ceyhan) is the longest in the World (1768 km) but transports 1 million of baril each day. When i was in Baku, the Azeri authorities celebrates the first baril of oil exported to the US via Turkey.Read the article of the newspaper "Monde Diplo" in English (for suscribers) or in French (full version available).
Azerbaijan is also one of the few countries of the region that did not face a "colored revolution" in the last years. And the lack of support from the international community (contrary to the neighbour country Georgia, where the US and western countries strongly supported the so-called "pink revolution") may come from the strategical role of the country. Azerbaijan is far to be a democracy. Freedom of speech is limited and a lot of journalists are in prison (the former SDYO (social-democratic youth organization) chairman is presently in jail. He was journalist in an opposition newspaper). The last elections in 2005 was a joke with massive irregularities (See the report of Human Rights Watch). And following the elections, the opposition went into the streets to ask for free and fair elections. But the repression of these demonstrations were masive without any protest from the international community. Why? Because the western countries need stability, and a "strong" political partner. The president Ilham Aliev presents these guarantees. The cynism of the international community ensures the stability of the regime..
See the article of Monde diplo "Pourquoi l'Azerbaidjan n'a pas basculé"
Next elections will take place in October or November this year. But the comrades are very pessimistic. Most probably, nothing will change and Aliev will win without any difficulties these elections. Azerbaijan is one of the countries with the highest growth in the World (more than 30% of growth last years) due to the energetic ressources. Without a democratic regime, this growth won't be redistributed and massive inequalities are expected. This may become the main "danger" for the sustainability of the regime. But without a clear support from the international community, these evolutions will take time.
