The future of Russia

Presidential elections in Russia. We already know that Dmitri Medveded, the official candidate supported by Putin will win. It is not an issue. The elections won't be fair and have not been fair until now. The real issue is what will be the behaviour of the newly elected president and his links with the future prime minister, Putin itself. We observed in the last days the first try of an emancipation. "Russia will stay as a presidential republic with one center of power". I remembered the strategy of Eltsine when he chose Putin. He wanted a non-charismatic guy that will be linked to his own interest. We know what Putin did with its heritage. Will we see the same rupture with Medvedev?

Read (in French) the analysis of bernard Guetta in Libération who thinks Russia may change his policy after the elections and considers that Europe has to help the new president.

The independance of Kosovo, the only option

As it was foreseen, Kosovo unilaterally declared its independance last Sunday. After almost 9 years of full autonomy and de facto independance, there were no alternative to this solution. It is a political cycle which is closing, the last step of the dislocation of the former republic of Yougoslavia. After the independence of Montenogro last year, it should become a new political era for the Serbians. This issue of Kosovo has polluted the internal debate since years and the fascists and the nationalists gained support because of this situation. Now the situation is clear and the Democrats should not try to increase the political and diplomatic crisis. It should be the right moments for the Democrats to put the political and social priorities on other fields. Russia is using this at the moment to try to cut Serbia and the Serbian people to other Europeans. They already had an aggressive policy of acquisition of Serbian companies and ressources, they are just selling their political support to the Serbian Governement (in particular at the UN Security Council) to expand their political influence. It is now up to the Serbian people to decide what future they want, and it is time for the Democrats to be clear on their political priorities: do they want to strenghten the links with Kostunica, the prime minister, on a more and more nationalist point of view? Or do they chose the European future and to overpass this difficult debate on Nationalism to put the social issues at the top of the priorities? The welfare of the Serbians won't be improved with a Kosovo rattached to Serbia. What they need is more employement, better working conditions and better opportunities for the youth.

For Kosovo, challenges are just starting. They have to show that they are able to create a sovereign state, to build a fair justice and solid institutions. The EU has a strong role to play helping the new state to do so but it is mainly the responsability of the kosovars to decide. The place of the Serbian minority in the new institutions will be a test for the international community.

For the Europeans, they have an historical responsability. Unfortunately, the EU countries does not have the same position considering the recognition of the new state of Kosovo. Already six governements refused to recognize this state, mainly because of internal reasons. These divisions are killing any political will and we will need this will in the next future. If we want to avoid a new instability in the Balkans, the political message of the EU should be very strong, clear and united. We already know the nationalists will try to play the card of claiming the independence of Republica Serbka for example. This has to be a casus-belli for Europe. Never the EU will accept the independence of a state that would have been created throught the war in Bosnia. EU has to give political and economic perspective for the people of the region.

Tchad, Sarkozy et la Françafrique

Je reviens sur la crise tchadienne et la politique africaine de Sarkozy pour Cap Finistère. Voici la réponse aux questions posées. A lire également sur le sujet le post de Benoit Curinier et l'article du Monde Diplo.

Cap Finistère : Quel rôle joue l'armée française au Tchad ?

La France et le Tchad sont liés par un accord de coopération militaire technique depuis 1976. Cet accord prévoit la formation des militaires tchadiens, et l’assistance de la France en terme de renseignements et d’appui logistique. Le Tchad est au cœur du dispositif militaire français en Afrique. Il y a près de 1500 soldats français présents au Tchad, réparties sur trois zones militaires. Lors de l’offensive des rebelles, la France est dans un premier temps prudemment resté en retrait du conflit. Disons que l’intervention des troupes françaises n’a pas été aussi flagrante qu’en 2006, lorsque nos soldats avaient tiré sur des troupes rebelles qui avançaient vers N’Djamena. Ceci dit, une nouvelle fois, l’appui logistique et en terme de renseignements a été décisif pour permettre le maintien au pouvoir du dictateur tchadien. Les militaires français ont par ailleurs protégé l’aéroport et pris directement à des combats. Le gouvernement s’est par ailleurs activé pour obtenir du conseil de sécurité une condamnation de l’offensive des rebelles et un soutien inconditionnel à Idriss Déby. Ce qui fait sourire, lorsqu’on sait que le président tchadien est arrivé au pouvoir par un coup d’Etat militaire, alors soutenu par la France…

Cap Finistère : Peut-on parler de rupture dans la politique africaine française depuis l'élection de Nicolas Sarkozy ?

Il existe un décalage important entre les discours du chef de l’Etat, notamment ceux qu’il a prononcé pendant la campagne présidentielle et la politique africaine de l’Elysée. Le soir même de son élection, Nicolas Sarkozy s’empressait de téléphoner à Omar Bongo, le dirigeant gabonais, pour le remercier de son soutien. La première visite en Afrique du Président, qui devait marquer « la rupture » annoncée, ne se sera résumée qu’à une visite au Gabon et au Sénégal, deux piliers de la politique françafricaine, accueillant des bases militaires françaises. Alors que les socialistes s’étaient engagés à rediscuter publiquement les accords de sécurité et de défense et à les placer sous le contrôle du Parlement, on voit bien que ce n’est pas l’objectif du gouvernement actuel. L’ambiguïté de l’action française au Tchad pendant la récente crise a pourtant montré qu’une remise à plat de ces accords était urgente.

Cap Finistère : Comment sont perçus les premiers mois de la présidence Sarkozy en Afrique ?

Le discours de Dakar de Sarkozy sur « l’homme africain » a été très mal perçu par les populations africaines. Beaucoup y ont vu un retour en force d’un comportement néo-colonial et condescendant inacceptable. La politique d’immigration passe également très mal et le traitement accordé aux sans-papiers choque, et la politique des visas continue d’affaiblir les liens de beaucoup de jeunes africains à notre pays. La jeunesse africaine a une méfiance grandissante vis-à-vis de la France et les politiques de M. Chirac et Sarkozy y a beaucoup contribué.

My last IUSY congress..

This congress of IUSY was the last one for me. After two years of work within IUSY as coordinator for social movements and GPYF, the congress took a decision. The vote was clear. My organization and me do not share the same vision of a political youth movement with the majority of IUSY organizations (at least the ones that were at the congress). We fought since years for an international movement of young socialists more involved with the social movements, active within the social forum, with the trade unions, with the NGOs that have a real impact at the international level. We are not living in a bubble and our candidature was a clear message for a more open IUSY, open towards the international movement, towards a more active IUSY at the international level. It is what we tried to do in the past two years, with my involvement within the Decent Work - Decent Life campaign steering group, with the ITUC, with ActionAid on the fight against EPAs. We tried to develop concepts of actions and to give a real frame for action at the international level. But sometimes, the principle of political responsibility doesn’t seem to be the top priority of our movement. I don't have to hide what I did or what I did not in the past two years. It was the basis for future actions but the direction chosen by IUSY is the opposite one. Some will argue that they agree with us on this vision even though we disagreed on the vote. From our side, we never make a distinction between the political line and the strategic positions.

I am worried about an organization that cares more about its internal struggles and subtle balances than about the political goals we have outside the organization. IUSY can be much more than a playground for young leaders that want to practice their strategic skills.

I sincerely wish good luck to Jacinda Arden, the newly elected president. I wish all the best to Zita who is now responsible for social movements and GPYF, and to Kati as a feminist coordinator. I congratulate the newly elected presidium. All of them. Lots of them are friends. I am really happy for Judicael (Benin), for Silje (Norway), for Daniel (Chile), Uri (Israel), Pavel (Mexico) and some others. I'm sure they will make a great work within this presidium. I thank all the comrades with whom I have worked during these years of involvement at the international level. Don't worry, MJS France and its international team lead by Benoit Curinier will continue the fight for a certain vision of international activism. :-)

For me, I will continue my involvement at the international level through different ways, through the work of Fondation Jean Jaures and other think-tanks at the international level, through my work of development economist at university... I never saw the participation in the IUSY presidium as a goal as such, as an accomplishment to add one line to my CV. My organization and I wanted to bring something to IUSY. But it is still possible to be active and to make a difference outside of this international platform...

IUSY congress in Santo Domingo

Here we are! I arrived on tuesday night in Santo Domingo for the IUSY congress. The presidium meeting started yesterday and is continuing today. Tonight, we have a public meeting with the candidate for the presidential elections of the PRD. I'll keep you updated later!

Bye bye Tony Blair!

As a French Socialist and PES activist, i was astonished by the participation of the former English prime minister Tony Blair to the national council of the right-wing party UMP, together with Nicolas Sarkozy. I thought that the UK Labour party was a sister party, member of the PES and the SI... At least, it is clear. Politically, it means something. It is true that Sarkozy and Blair share some points of view on the role of EU in the World and the relation with the United States. But it is also a challenge for the Party of European Socialist to be politically coherent. The drafting of the 2009 manifesto can be an opportunity to clarify our common visions based on a clear Left point of view.

Behind the participation of Tony Blair to the UMP national council, we have the candidature of the former British PM to the presidency of the European Union, supported by Nicolas Sarkozy. Clearly, this candidature can't be the one of the European Socialists. Last week-end, Tony Blair showed he was closer to the European Right-wing parties, and he won't be the candidate of a more social, federal and democratic Europe. The PES has to think on what would be his position regarding this election of a president of the EU and a possible alternative to the candidate of a neo-liberal and pro-NATO Europe. In France, this possible candidature was strongly critized within the Left (Pierre Moscovisci said he can't be the candidate of the Socialists) and the Right. Edouard Balladur and Valery Giscard D'Estaing said the next EU president should come for a country fully integrated in the EU (Euro, Schengen zone and Charter of Fundamental Rights). Well, it seems it will difficult for Tony!

Read the analysis of Jon Worth, and the one of Jean Quatremer (Coulisses de Bruxelles).

EPAs: "Stop ou encore"

The Economic Partnership aggreements (EPAs) between the EU and the ACP countries shoud have been negociated until 31st of December 2007. But because of a strong opposition of most of African countries, no aggreements were found. The African countries feared the complete liberalization that would have followed the ratification of these aggreements. What are the problems?

• The WTO aggreements ask for the reciprocity of the trade aggreements. If the EU accepts to open its markets to ACP countries, the ACP countries should open their markets to EU products. This is very problematic as the level of infrastructures, the production capacities and development of the countries cannot be compared. More flexibility should be given to this rule of reciprocity, both in the EPAs and at the WTO.
• The WTO allows specific trade arrangements for the developing countries and least advanced countries. The EU initiative "everything but arms" concerned the least advanced countries. But it is not possible to have a specific aggreement for some of the developing countries (the ACP for example). However, we cannot compare the situation of Brazil, India and China from one side and Antigua and Barbuda, Burkina Faso and Lesotho from the other side.
  
• EPAs should promote the regional integration. However, the EU does not let the time to the African countries to strenghten their sub-regional cooperation. Moreover, the EU always refused to involve South Africa in the negotiation (South Africa has a specific trade aggreement with the EU and are not part of the ACP aggreements). How to build a regional integration without South Africa?
• Do the ACP countries need the full liberalization of their market? No. At least, it is not the priority. Lets help to build infrastructure and strenghten their productive capacity first. The problem is the partnership is not clear and ambiguous. The EU make the promise to increase the European Development fund, but the reality of the additional fund have to be proved.
• The agenda was unrealistic. How to ask to ACP countries to fully open their market? It is impossible for some countries to evaluate the impact of these aggreements. First because they don't have yet statistics about their trade. More time is needed anyway.
  

For all that reasons, NGOs, trade unions and African countries are right to oppose these EPAs. (see the press release of ITUC). But the problem is wider. The WTO rules are also questionned and the ACP countries together with the EU should go there and negociate more flexibility on the rule of reciprocity for example. The EU has a lot of things to loose in these negotiations. So we must change urgently the shape of the negotiations.

See my other articles on the EPAs and the action of the GPYF we organized together with Action Aid. For another point of view, read this article "Commerce: Que faire avec l'Afrique" sur Télos.

Back from Baku - situation in Azerbaijan

I did not know very well the political situation in Azerbaijan. But this country plays a strategic role in the region due to its ressources in oil and gaz. The western countries try to use these ressources in order to minimize their energetical dependancies towards Russia. The pipeline BTC (Baku, Tbilissi, Ceyhan) is the longest in the World (1768 km) but transports 1 million of baril each day. When i was in Baku, the Azeri authorities celebrates the first baril of oil exported to the US via Turkey.

Read the article of the newspaper "Monde Diplo" in English (for suscribers) or in French (full version available).

Azerbaijan is also one of the few countries of the region that did not face a "colored revolution" in the last years. And the lack of support from the international community (contrary to the neighbour country Georgia, where the US and western countries strongly supported the so-called "pink revolution") may come from the strategical role of the country. Azerbaijan is far to be a democracy. Freedom of speech is limited and a lot of journalists are in prison (the former SDYO (social-democratic youth organization) chairman is presently in jail. He was journalist in an opposition newspaper). The last elections in 2005 was a joke with massive irregularities (See the report of Human Rights Watch). And following the elections, the opposition went into the streets to ask for free and fair elections. But the repression of these demonstrations were masive without any protest from the international community. Why? Because the western countries need stability, and a "strong" political partner. The president Ilham Aliev presents these guarantees. The cynism of the international community ensures the stability of the regime..

See the article of Monde diplo "Pourquoi l'Azerbaidjan n'a pas basculé"

Next elections will take place in October or November this year. But the comrades are very pessimistic. Most probably, nothing will change and Aliev will win without any difficulties these elections. Azerbaijan is one of the countries with the highest growth in the World (more than 30% of growth last years) due to the energetic ressources. Without a democratic regime, this growth won't be redistributed and massive inequalities are expected. This may become the main "danger" for the sustainability of the regime. But without a clear support from the international community, these evolutions will take time.

"A left wing Godesberg"

Read this article concerning the new German SPD program adopted in Hambourg: "A left wing Godesberg - the German SPD new Hambourg program" by Detlev Albers

"It is not a backtracking bow to the past that already the introduction follows ‘democratic socialism’s proud tradition. The paragraph on Our Values and Beliefs explicitly states that democratic socialism means nothing less than the programmatic horizon of social democratic objectives for the 21st century – the ‘first real global century’ according to the introductory time analysis."

The end of a tendancy in the European Left? We are far from the Blair-Schroeder message in this program. Read it here.

Nothing to see, but today i'm flying to Azerbaijan where i go on behalf of the Fondation Jean Jaures for a seminar with the youth organization SDYO. Back on monday. See you then!

Clinton is back.. Towards a ticket Obama - Edwards?

Clinton 39%, Obama 36% and Edwards 17%. Obama had 10% more in the polls. How to explain this result? Is it a new evidence of the so-called Bradley effect ("Specifically, there have been instances in which statistically significant numbers of white voters tell pollsters in advance of an election that they are either genuinely undecided, or likely to vote for the non-white candidate, but those voters exhibit a different behavior when actually casting their ballots.")? Difficult to say. Anyway, this second place of Obama is a very good result. And more and more people are pushing for a ticket Obama - Edwards (even if the name of more veterans politicians also emerge like Jack Reeds).

Read the live blogging from Social Europe Blog

General strikes in Guinea

After several weeks of a huge social and political crisis in January, a unity government was formed to solve the crisis. On 3 January, Justin Morel Junior, the Minister for Communication and New Information Technologies, was sacked by the President with no explanation given. Since last week demonstrations have been held in several of the country’s regions. The trade unions of Guinea called for unlimited general strikes starting on January 10th.

"The population is losing patience. The establishment of a transitional government in March 2007 had raised people’s hopes, however the changes awaited since then have been taking a long time to come, whilst living and working conditions have remained precarious. Justice also seems to be taking a long time to be done and the unions are critical of the dismissal for lack of evidence of the case against Mamadou Sylla, whose release sparked off a protest last year.

In a letter (FR - pdf) to the ECOWAS (Economic Community of West African States), the ITUC expressed its profound concern at the deteriorating socio-political situation in Guinea. The ECOWAS played an active role in the establishment of the transitional arrangements in Guinea and its support will be vital for guaranteeing peace, stability and democracy in this West African country."

Press release of ITUC (International Trade Union Confederation)

Communiqué de presse sur la Guinée de la Confédération Syndicale Internationale (en français)
Voir les articles sur ce blog sur la Guinée
Collectif Solidarité Guinée

Why the progressive should support John Edwards

Read the analysis of the comrade Daraka Larimore-Hall, it will become obvious.

"Democrats have three distinct opportunities to make history this year. Unfortunately, we have to choose between them. We could make history by electing the first woman President. We could elect the first black President. Or, we win the election by securing a mandate for truly progressive politics. Any of these would be phenomenal achievements, and they are each worth every ounce of sweat we can muster. It’s the third one, though, that is the most necessary and the most urgent. For this reason, my hopes and prayers are for John Edwards to (...) continue his campaign for the nomination." Daraka Larimore Hall

Read also his analysis after the vote in Iowa, and my blog post in French

Welcome back!

Yes, i had to achieve my Ph-D. Lack of time, very difficult to update this blog. Sorry for this silence but in 2008, i'm coming back! With a blog more focused on international politics with more posts in English. We come back to the original idea of this blog. Let's see...

In 2008, a lot of things to follow at the international level. US elections, Situation in Middle-East (Peace talks in Israel - Palestine and situation in Lebanon), Trade negotiations in Africa, Latin America. The goal is to think and debate: a progressive view of international politics. If you want to contribute to this debate, contact me and we will find a way to publish your point of view.

Prendre la place qui nous revient

J'avais participé en Juillet à l'Université d'été des jeunes décideurs francophones. A lire, l'article dans le journal La Gazette paru à l'occasion.

« il faut s’assurer que les groupes politiques jeunesse puissent faire de l’éducation populaire et il faut laisser les ailes jeunesses des différents partis accomplir les actions politiques »

petites breves de la IUSY

Peu de temps pour écrire en ce moment. Je vous fait d'ici quelques jours le compte-rendu du Presidium de la IUSY, marqué par la rencontre avec le Président Thabo Mbeki. Nous avons échangé sur le commerce international, sur les APE, l'OMC, les Nations-Unis, l'appartheid économique en Afrique du Sud, le Sida, sur le prochain sommet UE-Afrique de Lisbonne.. 1 heure d'échange détendu. En attendant le compte-rendu, rendez-vous sur le blog de Benoit Curinier qui était au comité Afrique et sur celui d'Etienne Valois qui était à la rencontre des jeunes de Marly Le Roi dans le cadre de la préparation du sommet Jeune Europe-Afrique de Lisbonne. Bonne lecture!

Presidium de la IUSY

Départ pour le presidium de la IUSY ce soir à Johannesbourg. A l'ordre du jour, essentiellement la préparation du centenaire de la IUSY qui sera célébré à Berlin fin août et rencontre prévue avec le président sud-Africain Thabo Mbeki.

Qui nous disait que la Françafrique était finie?

A l'heure où Sarkozy est en Afrique pour sa grande tournée de la continuité de la politique Françafricaine de Papa (Chirac) avec une visite au Sénégal et au Gabon, rue89 publie un excellent article sur les accords de sécurité et de défense. A lire absolument. Ils décryptent le fonctionnement de ces accords, souvent classés secret-défense et dépendant du bon vouloir du seul président de la République. Les socialistes s'étaient engagés à revenir sur ces accords en les renégociant sous le contrôle du Parlement (malgré les attermoitements de la candidate sur la question, mise-en-avant au début de l'article). Sarkozy avait soigneusement évité le sujet. Hasard? Le Gabon et le Sénégal sont deux pays ayant signés de tels accords avec la France et acceuillant sur leur sol des bases militaires françaises. La "rupture" n'est définitivement pas à chercher du côté de la politique africaine de l'Elysée..

La France doit changer d'attitute vis-à-vis de Rwanda

Excellente tribune parue ce matin dans Libération: Rwanda-France : l’angle mort par Par Jean- Pierre Chrétien et JEAN-FRANÇOIS DUPAQUIER qui montre bien comment la France s'est isolée par sa politique vis-à-vis du Rwanda, notamment par la réecriture de l'Histoire par le juge Bruguière " qui veut faire des Tutsis les responsables de leurs propres malheurs".

Congrès des Jeunes Socialistes Espagnols (JSE)

Les camarades des JSE tenaient ce week-end leur congrès à Madrid. Ils ont élu un nouveau secrétaire général Sergui Gutierrez Prieto et une nouvelle équipe nationale. Les camarades Aurora (nouvelle secrétaire internationale) et Chus font partie de cette nouvelle équipe. Félicitations à eux.

Une citation du nouveau secrétaire général, dans une interview au journal El Pais:

"Nosotros queremos ser eficaces, aportar la visión joven a la política socialista, proyectar nuestra voz y nuestras reivindicaciones. Vamos a estar más en la calle. Nosotros somos el ala más progresista y más reivindicativa del PSOE. El ala izquierda."

les APE en débat

Les APE, kesako? Les accords de partenariats économiques doivent définir les relations commerciales entre l'Union Européenne et les pays ACP (Afrique-Caraïbes-Pacifique). Actuellement en cours de négociation, ils doivent permettre de se mettre en conformité avec les règles de l'OMC, notamment le respect du principe de réciprocité (en gros: si je t'ouvre mes marchés, tu dois aussi m'ouvrir les tiens). La commission européenne accentue la pression pour trouver un accord avant la fin de l'année, malgré la précipitation, l'impréparation et les conséquences potentiellements désastreuses de son application.

Je vous invite à lire cet article d'Agoravox sur la venue de Mandelson et Michel à Yaounde pour disctuter de ces APE. Cet article résume bien les enjeux.

A relire également, la résolution du MJS que j'avais fait passé à l'époque sur ces APE et l'action du Global progressive Youth forum que nous avions organisé à Bruxelles avec des liens vers les rapports d'Action Aid et d'Oxfam. Nous avions adopté une résolution GPYF / ActionAidInternational/Coalition des Jeunes Africains contre la faim que vous pouvez lire ici.


Désolé, peu de temps en ce moment pour poster des articles plus régulièrement. Fin de thèse oblige, ce blog sera en activité réduite jusqu'à la fin de l'été.